Numerical modeling to evaluate the probability of slope failure

One of the final aim of the MODAL project (Task 6) is to define, characterize and quantify the possible hazard sources involved in the study area: earthquakes, pore pressure and strain softening associated to creeping. This task will ultimately define the probability of occurrence of a given mechanism and its associated probability of slope failure.

This will be evaluated using finite element calculations using a Visco-plastic constitutive model to account for creeping phenomena. Mechanical parameters used in the numerical model to characterize the creeping behaviour of the Nice upper sediments will be obtained from experimental laboratory tests carried out in task 5. The slope displacement rate of the upper sediment layers measured thanks to the tiltmeters will be used as a control input in the numerical calculations.

Activities related to this task will begin during the second year of the project.



3D Finite Element calculation using the Abaqus software with a) 3D mesh of a typical slope profile of the Nice shelf with the deployed TIPS rod and the total displacement (b-with and c-without TIPS) along the vertical faces of the 3D calculation domain.